You, however, do not address either what makes you think that or where would Apple be in you scenario.

As thing are today, there is nothing to suggest that Apple are losing steam or that Android is gaining such at a higher rate. It is true in probably every respect of the two platforms, but it is especially true when it comes to the respective app stores. So in that case my prognosmification would be that, even if you're right and Android is where the iPhone is today in a few years, Apple's platform would have grown too by then, maybe even proportionally to Android.

Which does not mean one should not develop applications for Android or that they shouldn't "plan for it". But expecting that there is explosive growth just around the corner is absolutely unrealistic.

There IS explosive growth just around the corner in terms of Android device models.

Of course, this doesn't necessarily translate into explosive growth in terms of users.

If they would bring the HTC Hero in to multiple providers they would see a pretty significant jump in users I would imagine.

Although, that new Nokia looks pretty great, I might be switching to it if T-Mobile doesn't end up getting the Hero, bad choice ignoring the Hero for the one they used for the mytouch.

Good lordy. Well, hopefully it isn't blamed on users' relationship issues.

I absolutely think your correct. I fully expect Android to eclipse the iPhone in market share within the next 3 years. I say that with a couple of caveats, however:

1. Google has to get serious about competing with Apple. They need to adopt multi-touch, and they need to do it NOW. I get there is a legal question around it, but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube.

2. Google needs to show that they're serious. The app-store for Android is a mess (as the article clearly articulates). There is a lot of money to be made there, but Google needs to step up to the plate and make that a vibrant eco-system. They need to be Microsoft to Apples..well.. Apple. Be more developer friendly, more marketing friendly, and let the openness of their system eclipse the closed off world of the iPhone.

If they do that, Android should be a huge win. They've built the technology. Just as S60 dominates the smart phone market today, Android is similarly positioned. It can support a lot of price points and a lot of different form factors. That variety allows for a huge number of devices to collectively drive that share through the roof.

Since the device is more open, it creates an environment for developers to build truly killer apps that utilize the full system in a much more advanced way. Again, that is predicated on Googles ability to bring a truly robust store to their phones. If they do, that further increases Android's viability and gives them a marked advantage over the iPhone.

Google is REALLY close with this.. they just need to take the next step.

I don't think supporting a lot of form factors and "price points" (i.e. hardware capability) is necessarily a recipe for success. The baseline hardware has to be pretty capable, e.g. including a 3D graphics chip, generous memory, ample storage, etc. The phone can't be too cheap, or apps will run on some Android installations and not on others, leading to platform fragmentation.

If anything, something like Vista's machine performance score could be implemented, with the lowest-scoring element being the total score.

> I don't think supporting a lot of form factors and "price points" (i.e. hardware capability) is necessarily a recipe for success.

It worked for Nokia.

No it didn't. Nokia doesn't have a successful app platform.

Most people, until very recently, did not care in the slightest about 'apps' on cell phones. You guys are thinking way too much like silicon valley geeks about this.

Did it? Nokia is losing ground rapidly to Apple, particularly in the higher margin smart phone market, aren't they?

It did. Does it still? Maybe not, but is the problem really having lots of phones, or is that they're not good at competing in the high end where Apple is doing so well? Are the two mutually incompatible?

If Nokia had just stuck to the high end, they would have lost billions of Euros of sales. There are tons of people over here in Europe, at least, that are perfectly ok with their cheap and reliable Nokia phone.

I don't actually know, thus the question mark at the end. I just get the impression that the market is moving to smart phones and that Nokia has very little presence there.

But, you're quite right...Nokia has sold a lot of phones (probably an order of magnitude more than Apple), in Europe, in particular. But I'm not sure a shotgun approach to product lineup creation is a good answer (I don't know that it isn't, it just seems like it hurts more than it helps, in terms of brand awareness, loyalty, etc.).

I do tend to think that a lot of manufacturers making Android phones will have an impact...but, I think that impact will come from competition amongst manufacturers and service providers, and the openness of the platform. The openness means I can already do things with an Android phone that can't be done with an iPhone, and that gap will probably continue to grow. That said, the Apple market size means that it gets more apps than Android...so there are also things one can't do with Android that you can on iPhone (though for non-technical reasons).

What I'm saying is, I have no idea. I'm just wild-ass guessing, like everybody else.

> But I'm not sure a shotgun approach to product lineup creation is a good answer (I don't know that it isn't, it just seems like it hurts more than it helps, in terms of brand awareness, loyalty, etc.

I think Nokia probably has a few too many phones, but on the other hand, I think it's not a bad idea to cover everything from the 25 euro super-basic units to some of the really fancy smart phones they have. And have them they do.

In terms of branding, I think that Nokia has a great reputation for building good, solid products amongst most people I know. Part of having a lot of different kinds of phones is letting people pick one that "reflects their lifestyle" (or some such marketing BS:-) rather than the one-size-fits-all iPhone.

Yeah, it worked for Nokia, who over the last year made less in profits from all there phones, to Apple and its 3 phones. Yeah, they sell many more phones, but make a lot less profit.

Yeah, it is working for Nokia.

> but that didn't stop them from aggressively pursuing YouTube.

That's true, but Hurley and Chen + VCs were not going to put up much of a fight against one of the few parties on the planet that could have bought them out.

When it comes to legal stamina and clout Apple on the other hand is a different kettle of fish, if Google and Apple ever go head to head on something like this there will be two winners (the lawyers and Microsoft).

Android Market has been out since October 2008, and Android G1 has been out since then as well. By month 10, App Store was doing better than this--hell, by day 1, App Store was doing better than this.

That's some pretty slow growth.

It's interesting that you view near-zero revenue as a positive sign.