The article doesn't include an analysis of projected Russian retaliation though?

So I wouldn't go far as to say it's a no-brainer since there's always a tit-for-tat process going on behind the scenes.

What exactly is Russian going to do in retaliation? They've already failed to invade an ex-Soviet neighbor. At this point if I were Russian I'd be concerned Finland might just annex the whole country and nothing could be done to stop them.

Well, there's always the (quite literally in this case) nuclear option. But I hope not even Putin is crazy enough for that...

While it does exist as an option, I'm not entirely convinced any significant number of the weapons they retain function. Their military seems to be in shambles. They have so many nuclear weapons that certainly at least a handful are usable, but how would they know what weapons function?

Russia already has been a hostile nation for more than a decade and will try to do as much damage as it can without incurring additional retaliation anyway. Nothing changes here.

Besides after more than a year of war this is an interesting but purely counterfactual analysis without much relevance for today.

> Russia already has been a hostile nation for more than a decade and will try to do as much damage as it can without incurring additional retaliation anyway. Nothing changes here.

Not quite, since there are taboos that even the Kremlin has been afraid to break so far. Such as poisoning diplomats, deploying weapons to space, messing with subsea cables, etc...

But theoretically they have less to lose than the U.S. because they have less diplomats, have less space assets, and so on. So one day the decision makers may be tempted to get one back.

Pretty sad that Ukrainian and Russian human lives probably didn’t enter any of that equation as having any value.

It’s likely extremely negative value when properly integrated into future potential outcome. For example the “badwill” it will generate from relatives and decedents of all the dead.

I doubt fueling war is ever a good strategy in the long run.

Compared to peace and prosperity, sure. Compared to Russia winning and subjugating more of the Ukrainian nation and population, much less so.

Who cares what the motivation of some bigwigs in Washington is, as long as they are helping Ukraine defending their country. It is Russia that invaded and annexed territories of its neighbor and who can end this war any time by going home.

Some US volunteers, instructors and engineers have died from Russian airstrike to some training facility IIRC.

It's also incredible advertising for western arms manufacturers, especially after several decades of them basically being the bad guys in the public's eyes.