I’m not claiming I know the exact timing. I’m just seeing a trend line. Gpt3 to 3.5 to 4 to 5. Codex and now Claude. The models are getting better at programming much faster than I am. Their skill at programming doesn’t seem to be levelling out yet - at least not as far as I can see.

If this trend continues, the models will be better than me in less than a decade. Unless progress stops, but I don’t see any reason to think that would happen.