Conditional on “the study being published and getting attention” the real effect is likely smaller and not larger.
Eg if you assume there is a real effect plus a lot of noise, given the study has been published etc the noise will have more likely acted in the favourable direction.
IMHO given the relatively large size of the effect it seems quite likely that the noise part is in fact potentially large (this is much more subjective) which makes is less clear that there is measurable signal at all here. I’d have to see a lot of replication or a very strong explanation of the underlying mechanism to believe the magnitude of the effect, but will very easily believe the sign (with a small magnitude).
Eg if you assume there is a real effect plus a lot of noise, given the study has been published etc the noise will have more likely acted in the favourable direction.
IMHO given the relatively large size of the effect it seems quite likely that the noise part is in fact potentially large (this is much more subjective) which makes is less clear that there is measurable signal at all here. I’d have to see a lot of replication or a very strong explanation of the underlying mechanism to believe the magnitude of the effect, but will very easily believe the sign (with a small magnitude).