Polls are weird. In 2016, the polls strongly suggested Trump would not win.
Ukraine is a war zone under martial law. Informal ratings are likely even less reliable than in more stable place.
Properly administered democratic elections can capture approval. But those were canceled in Ukraine (constitutionally) due to the war and martial law. Their most reliable capture of approval, was canceled!
The 2016 polling margin was off by about 2%. Mattered immensely for who won, but it's a myth that the polls were massively wrong about public opinion. They were highly accurate!
>Polls are weird. In 2016, the polls strongly suggested Trump would not win.
None of the polling suggested that. They suggested Clinton had a 2-3 point popular vote lead. She did in fact have a 2-3 point popular vote lead. It's not the polling's fault that it's measuring something that the US doesn't actually use to select the President.
Outlets that did take state polls into consideration and tried to simulate the electoral vote, namely 538, gave Trump a basically 1/3 chance to win.
Ukraine is a war zone under martial law. Informal ratings are likely even less reliable than in more stable place.
Properly administered democratic elections can capture approval. But those were canceled in Ukraine (constitutionally) due to the war and martial law. Their most reliable capture of approval, was canceled!