I believe the conclusion is correct in 2025, but the article in a way just perpetuates the 'misinformation', making it seem like finding if your code will compile to a dynamic branch or not is easier than it is.
The unfortunate truth with shaders is that they are compiled by the users machine at the point of use. So compiling it on just your machine isn't nearly good enough. NVIDIA pricing means large numbers of customers are running 10 year old hardware. Depending on target market you might even want the code to run on 10 year old integrated graphics.
Does 10 year old integrated graphics across the range of drivers people actually have running prefer conditional moves over more arithmetic ops.. probably, but I would want to keep both versions around and test on real user hardware if this shader was used a lot.
The unfortunate truth with shaders is that they are compiled by the users machine at the point of use. So compiling it on just your machine isn't nearly good enough. NVIDIA pricing means large numbers of customers are running 10 year old hardware. Depending on target market you might even want the code to run on 10 year old integrated graphics.
Does 10 year old integrated graphics across the range of drivers people actually have running prefer conditional moves over more arithmetic ops.. probably, but I would want to keep both versions around and test on real user hardware if this shader was used a lot.