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Other important quotes: "o3 still fails on some very easy tasks, indicating fundamental differences with human intelligence. Furthermore, early data points suggest that the upcoming ARC-AGI-2 benchmark will still pose a significant challenge to o3, potentially reducing its score to under 30% even at high compute (while a smart human would still be able to score over 95% with no training)."

So ya, working on efficiency is important, but we're still pretty far away from AGI even ignoring efficiency. We need an actual breakthrough, which I believe will not be possible by simply scaling the transformer architecture.



Thank You. That alone suggest we could throw another 100X compute and we still wont be close to average human which is something close to 70-80%.

So combined together we are currently at least 10^5 in terms of cost efficiency. In reality I wont be surprised if we are closer to 10^6.




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