You mean would Steve Wozniak & Steve Jobs have applied to Y Combinator? (Oh yeah, that other Steve...)
No! They were too busy hacking phones and building things people wanted to waste time to go through the application process of YC. Money was chasing them.
This is true for most runaway successes, they were all true hackers that broke things: Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, etc. Not the "hackers" who are asking for $125k salary...
They didn't care about the money, they didn't care about the allure, they didn't care about the status. They just wanted to break things and make them work better, legality aside.
But the landscape has changed, and Steve & Steve are not just starting Apple and YC would not be around if Apple wasn't started when it was, so it's a silly question be it a fun thought experiment.
I think YC supports the companies that shoot for the moon, but people aren't willing to take the risk and say no to acquisitions of $20-$100m because that is the short term business model of today and people just want to take their $5m and show off.
"The approach of remaining independent, and investing profits back into to the company followed by technology zealots such as Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs is unattractive to an investor."
They only way to counter this is to build a great product with little to no money and have it grow like a weed, then negotiate like a mob boss to keep the majority of the voting rights of the company.
I think your response and the OP are quite wrong on a few fronts.
First off, YC is NOT looking for companies that take $20M exits. They certainly happen, but it's not great for YC. 95% of the money made in the valley from liquidity events in the valley are from 10 companies-- YC is trying to be part of those 10. The smaller exits just keep the lights on (don't believe me? Do the math on what YC gets from a $20M exit after being diluted thru a funding round or two).
Second, to say "The approach of remaining independent, and investing profits back into to the company followed by technology zealots such as Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs is unattractive to an investor," is just flat out wrong. There are certainly long-game consumer plays (like Facebook) where revenue is eschewed. But Heroku? Parse? Dropbox? AirBnB? Monster cash flow businesses.
As to whether Jobs would do YC-- he might not have when Apple was already growing. What about when he was selling blue box hardware? What about when he came back from India and got a job at Atari?
Do we have empirical data that YC doesn't get most of its returns from incremental exits? I thought that the hallmark of the YC model was its diversification along the long tail of founders, freeing it from the 10-bagger trap of traditional VC.
While your statement is true about Wozniak from what I know it's not true about Jobs. He was a business person and he knew how to make a buck in addition to wanting to "change the world". Same with Gates for that matter.
“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn’t matter to me” - Jobs
“Going to bed at night saying we’ve done something wonderful . . . that’s what matters to me.” - Jobs
You could argue that he was smart enough to say things like that. Who wants to hear a rich guy say how much he loves having such a shitload of money that most people could not even imagine it?
"You could argue that he was smart enough to say things like that."
Agree. There is a pattern with people with money who do this. Oprah on her show would take people to her Chicago house which was nice but not opulent in the same way as her other houses. And she would make random statements about the cost of things to try and sound like an ordinary person. As if we are supposed to believe that someone worth hundreds of millions really needs to care about the price of vegetables in the super market? People try to wear frugality like a badge of courage trying to seem like "real" folk. I know of a particular wealthy VC who talks about flying coach. They are trying to say "I'm just like you.." don't be jealous.
While I've seen many wealthy people give away plenty of money to charities I have yet to see one (while still alive) that gives away all of their money except enough to live like an ordinary person in suburbia would do. Or even a majority of their money.
Trump of course has made a good living out of trying to say what a "shitload" of money he has. That's because that is what he is trying to sell an image of being successful which has of course helped him become successful. That's part of his product.
He proved through is way of living that he wasn't about the money. He lived by all metrics a fairly simple and humble private live far from the Ellifsons out there.
He may not have cared about money as much as other rich people, but it seems like he loved to make money, or, in another sense, sell a lot of something.
> I think YC supports the companies that shoot for the moon, but people aren't willing to take the risk and say no to acquisitions of $20-$100m because that is the short term business model of today and people just want to take their $5m and show off.
A more charitable take: A founder with a few grand in the bank is doing a high wire act without a safety net. A respected repeat founder who's already banked a few million can let go of most concerns for safety and family and focus on changing the world or self-actualization or whatever you want to call it.
This is the mindset I am talking about, "I just need a few million as a pillow and then I can create something great!"
A founder with a few grand in the bank who can create something great is the founder who doesn't depend on money to make them great! They don't need to look for investors to support them and give them an allowance.
Look at Richard Branson, Steve Jobs, etc... Money is not the dependent factor, they hack the system for the simple fact that they want to hack the system! Free phone calls, driving a van records across boarders, etc.
Citing billionaire succes stories leans a bit heavily on survivorship bias. As an individual who's not yet financially independent the expected return on trying to be Patrick McKenzie or even Joshua Schachter is much higher than the expected return on trying to be Bill Gates.
I agree with you completely but you're omitting that Steve & Steve and Richard, and almost all the mythical entrepreneurial successes had found a way to fire their boss and landlord (in some form) so that they could focus on what they do best. Everyone's situation is different so if making an early YC exit is your method (or plan) to achieve this then it shouldn't be gainsayed.
I saw Wozniak on a CNBC stating explicitly that Jobs cared very much about the allure and status of being in big business, for what it's worth. I see little evidence he cared much about the money.
"I see little evidence he cared much about the money."
Jobs was not the Ben & Jerry's guys. Jobs cared about money. Just because someone doesn't live an opulent lifestyle doesn't mean they don't care about money. Buffet is a good example of that. He lives in the same house he bought in 1957.
Money, even if you run out of things to spend it on, or if you don't buy luxury goods, allows you to have power and do so many things that you can't do without money.
You are making the point for me, thank you. They do love the tech, first and foremost, and don't want to sell out for a quick buck because they know money is not the thing that makes you happy! Wealth is different then money, building wealth is valuable for them, not money. Big difference.
I'm guessing they are making an assumption that without Apple personal computers would never have take off and we would still be stuck in mainframe hell.
No: if Apple hadn't happened, personal computing would have flourished anyway. Intel might not have been so dominant in the µprocessor market, as the IBM PC was a panic response to Apple's success, and IBM's scientific PC, based on a Motorola 68K chip, might have taken a larger market share.
See Ted Nelson's book Computer Lib/Dream Machines for more on the state of personal computing prior to the start of Apple.
I admit that I'm not intimately familiar with YC's and pg's preaching but my impression of what I've read and seen from pg is that he is very insistent on startups having a solid business model and on them focusing on customer acquisition. And I don't remember having ever heard pg advocate quick exits. This is at odds with the assumptions you've based your post on. I might be wrong though - happy to get corrected by YC alumni.
As for "changing the world", this is an expression that's as meaningless as it gets. Of course everybody wants to change the world, why wouldn't you? And since everybody lives in their own world anyway, in a way, everybody changes the world. For example, I personally find Facebook to be one of the most useless product I've ever used. I genuinely wouldn't notice if Facebook disappeared tomorrow. On the other side, for my deaf teenage cousin, Facebook literally changed his world. He went from being the weirdo disabled boy in the corner of the room that nobody would talk to to being a perfectly normal teenager communicating on Facebook like any other teenager.
So the YC startups you're talking about might not have changed your world but you can be sure that they've changed quite a few other people's world. Arguably, Steve Jobs, who you cite in example, has hardly changed the world for most people. Had he not be there, computers and smartphone would have been there anyway and would have more or less done what they do today (and I'm saying this as a big admirer of Apple who has discovered computing on a Mac SE and is typing this post on a MacBook Pro).
When it comes to bigger goals like ending wars or poverty, fixing the global warming problem or space exploration, it would be incredibly naive to believe that you can tackle the problem as a nobody (i.e. as a young, first time entrepreneur with no cash and no network).
Elon Musk didn't start with a crazy-big-truly-change-the-world project. He, you know, did Paypal first. Just like what the Stripe guys (a YC startup) are doing. Bill Gates didn't start by tackling the issue of poverty, illnesses and illiteracy in Africa. He started by writing an interpreter. You have to start somewhere and this somewhere is generally relatively small but gives you what yo need (knowledge, experience, network, cash) to follow up with something bigger afterwards. That's my understanding of what YC is all about.
This topic is so difficult to analize that I just follow one rule: do what you love and fuck the rest.
If you're doing what you love, you'd feel right. Passions take play here, but there is a catch here: everyone have passion, or have discovered them. So, if you are from the part who have, just follow them.
Both Apple and Microsoft started at a time when personal computers barely existed and thus a couple of guys with very little capital could build a computer kit or code a blackjack game in a day.
One key difference its revenue: Allen often mentions how any piece of code brought money to the company, simple apps that are 100% free today would have been sold for tens of millions back then. Same with hardware, which is why Apple could get roughly 1 million (in today's dollars) to leave the garage.
Basically both companies were in the right place at the right time: right before the PC revolution began. A YC-equivalent at that time would've appeared around 1982, after IBM launched the "official" PC with DOS and the ball was already rolling.
That was the time when a lot of other startups appeared, like Amiga, Adobe, Lotus, Silicon Graphics, etc...
Note that none of those companies were as successful as Apple and Microsoft were, in fact some went chapter 11 and disappeared.
> both companies were in the right place at the right time
When looking back on a very successful company, it seems they were all in the right place at the right time. Adding to Microsoft and Apple, Google, Facebook, Twitter
Were in they right place at the right time, or did they mold the future to such an extreme, that in hindsight it seems as if they were in the right place at the right time?
Timing matters. Later example - many things had to come together for the ipod to be a success as well as the iphone and for that matter the ipad. While there is no question that Jobs did much to mold this, there were many other factors such as the price of components and technology the products relied on. So you can't "mold" anything without the proper materials.
Much of what we have today wouldn't be possible w/o broadband. Instagram wouldn't exist unless digital camera technology was developed to the point it had. Facebook became immensely popular because of digital photos. Wouldn't happen if people had to scan photos to get them on Facebook.
I don't think so because you have to remember that there was a lot of other companies at the time working in the same space. Just an example would be Commodore that was actually much more successful in the 80s than Apple. There were many others with similar ideas.
Obviously these companies lasted while others disappeared due to bad management, competition etc... It's hard to say that without Apple and Microsoft, the micro-computer revolution would not still have occurred.
> I think the problem is rooted in the business model that seems to be preached by Y Combinator: build a great product, choose investment over income, and exit as quickly as possible.
This isn't the model preached by YCombinator at all. It actually literally runs counter to the model preached by YCombinator. YC is 7 years old, and has approached building companies with pragmatism; it's definitely the case that many startups will fail, a some will exit quickly, and a select few will last long enough and be strong enough to be IPOs, and then even fewer will last long enough as public, independent companies (Google is 13, Microsoft and Apple are both older than 20 years) to try doing things in house like building autonomous, self driving cars, or space rockets.YC is well aware of this dynamic, but the key thing this post misses is: creating a company that lasts, or being a founder well resourced enough to fight again, is a crucial part of being able to build space rockets. You have to be there. So with that in mind the model YC ACTUALLY preaches is more like:
"Talk to users, write code, build a great product, that makes money, and you wont need investors. If you do this, you just might last long enough and be strong enough to build space rockets."
>I think the problem is rooted in the business model that seems to be preached by Y Combinator: build a great product, choose investment over income, and exit as quickly as possible.
YCombinator never tells founders to "exit as quickly as possible". In fact, they and most other technology investors get 90+% of their returns from the home runs and encourage founders to go big if things are working. You can do the math yourself: how many talent acquisitions would it take to add up to one Dropbox ($4B valuation)?
While a lot of companies coming out of YCombinator (and Silicon Valley in general) are focused on the internet, there are exceptions. For example, there was a 3D scanning company in the most recent batch:
http://venturebeat.com/2012/03/27/matterport-3d-scanner/
Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with deceptively small things. Want to dominate microcomputer software? Start by writing a Basic interpreter for a machine with a few thousand users. Want to make the universal web site? Start by building a site for Harvard undergrads to stalk one another.
> Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with deceptively small things.
Well, to really pursue that argument, you'd also want to look at how many "deceptively small things" stayed small and never amounted to much of anything.
The more dangerous question...would he have gotten in?
After all, you're dealing with a college dropout who didn't study anything related to computer science and had personality issues. I suspect that the HR guys at Apple would drop Steve's resume in the waste bin if he applied today.
The article states: "I think the problem is rooted in the business model that seems to be preached by Y Combinator: build a great product, choose investment over income, and exit as quickly as possible."
I'm pretty sure I've heard the first point mentioned before by the partners of YC, but I'm not sure I've seen evidence of the others. Is there actually evidence of YC telling its classes to exit as quickly as possible? My guess is any quick exits are more likely as a result of founders being offered a chance at a payout rather than YC pushing them to exit.
To add to your last point pg stated more than once that the best outcomes for YC will occur if companies can make it to IPO. That's not a short-term play.
I think that the overall list of 'fastest companies to IPO' might be skewed by the dot-com bubble companies that were fast to IPO but failed soon afterwards thanks to having no real business model or income.
Not that I know of. Although it would only be non-YC companies (no YC company has IPOd yet - Dropbox and Airbnb are the likely candidates but Weebly has also hinted that they might be in a position to consider it soon)
With all due respect this article seems naive. Sure Google is building self-driving cars now (not exactly innovative, since virtually every 3rd grader lists that as one of the things they imagine in the future), but they did that after acquiring a hugely profitable core business which was "just another search engine".
Everything is "just another xyz" until its not.
What YC gets is that it asks it's founders to solve a problem. Maybe a real pain point, or a problem you don't know even exists until someone points it out to you, but whatever it is -- solve it well. At that points your minor pivots are leveraged until, before you know it, you're moving a mountain, when you started just intending to move a pebble.
And BTW, didn't Dropbox pass on an acquisition from Apple near $1B?
"Is the next Steve Jobs or Bill Gates filling in Y Combinator's application form right now, or are they taking the independent route?"
YC can reproduce the career arc of Steve Jobs, but not Bill Gates. Until the IPO Microsoft didn't sell stock to outside investors in significant quantities. By essentially bootstrapping, Gates and Allen were able to bring Ballmer on board with 8% equity at a point when outside investors would be eyeing exit in a VC backed company.
This is in contrast with Jobs, who lost control of Apple by accepting outside money. On the other hand, having grown up in Silicon Valley, Jobs would not have needed the sort of guidance through the startup landscape that YC provides relative to a hacker from Topeka - i.e. Jobs was sophisticated enough to raise money for Apple based upon his social connections within Silicon Valley.
But Jobs had to be lucky enough for Apple to nearly go bankrupt so they would entertain having him return and turn them around. This cosmically lucky event is not very reproducible.
After Apple, Jobs didn't sit on his hands, but went on to found two companies - Pixar and NEXT. Pixar alone would have made him famous, again. And, NEXT assured his return to Apple, because of Apple's failure to innovate in early 90s and the need of something, anything to restart its OS line. NEXT and Jobs were their best bets.
Even without Apple Jobs would have accomplished many things. That's just the kind of person he was. So, luck has nothing to do with this.
Just a quibble, but Jobs purchased what became Pixar from George Lucas. Saying that he founded it is a bit of a stretch -- he pretty much just bankrolled it until it finally found its niche with "Toy Story". Alan Deutschman's "The Second Coming of Steve Jobs" draws a sharp contrast between Jobs' roles at the two companies:
If Jobs and Woz had been born in Jackson, Mississippi, they would not have known much about phreaking, attended Home Brew Computer club meetings, or known HP employees with disposable income to spend on the Apple I.
"none of the copycat incubators have an alumni list or investment portfolio containing names such as Dropbox, Reddit, Clickpass, Posterous or Codecademy. I can't think of a better list."
Clickpass? Really? I could think of a better list containing just YC companies.
And how do Dropbox, AirBnB, Heroku, Weebly, Justin.tv, etc. lack vision?
> I think the problem is rooted in the business model that seems to be preached by Y Combinator: build a great product, choose investment over income, and exit as quickly as possible.
This seems like a misinterpretation of what YCs investment/mentorship philosophy.
An important factor between Web 2.0 startups and "change the world" startups is the size of investment required. Web 2.0 startups are very cheap. Starting Tesla Motors on Y Combinator funding would be impossible. Apple was also started on a very small budget at a time when electronics was in a similar position cost-wise as the web is now.
What is different between most web 2.0 startups and Apple, though, is that Apple expanded an existing enterprise market to the general public. Cloud computing is having similar effects, but otherwise I don't see many similarities.
While Apple as Jobs and Woz hocking Apple I kits was started on almost no budget is true, Apple as an actual company was started with a $250K loan from Mike Markkula. Hardly a small budget when you consider those were 1976 dollars. Steve wanted to do big things, and he understood it took big dollars to do so.
I think the point of the OP boils down to: Steve (like Zuck now) wanted to build a company that changed the world, not build a company that he could flip.
"Ferociously independent" might be a more accurate characterization than "control freak." And you're right, I don't see Jobs submitting himself to being led around by mentors.
On the other hand, he didn't have to deal with the much more complicated legal environment that we have now, which includes patent suits left and right whenever there's big stakes involved. But on the other other hand, perhaps there's no good way to navigate these new problems anyway.
No! They were too busy hacking phones and building things people wanted to waste time to go through the application process of YC. Money was chasing them.
This is true for most runaway successes, they were all true hackers that broke things: Facebook, Apple, Microsoft, etc. Not the "hackers" who are asking for $125k salary...
They didn't care about the money, they didn't care about the allure, they didn't care about the status. They just wanted to break things and make them work better, legality aside.
But the landscape has changed, and Steve & Steve are not just starting Apple and YC would not be around if Apple wasn't started when it was, so it's a silly question be it a fun thought experiment.
I think YC supports the companies that shoot for the moon, but people aren't willing to take the risk and say no to acquisitions of $20-$100m because that is the short term business model of today and people just want to take their $5m and show off.
"The approach of remaining independent, and investing profits back into to the company followed by technology zealots such as Jeff Bezos and Steve Jobs is unattractive to an investor."
They only way to counter this is to build a great product with little to no money and have it grow like a weed, then negotiate like a mob boss to keep the majority of the voting rights of the company.
That's enough for now, time for focus...