So all they need is 20 years to build up a fanbase in a product universe worth tens of billions of dollars and everyone will be clamoring to sideload their app as well.
But this does contradict your point that "nobody installs apps from outside of Google Play". And, if they're installing something like a loyalty app, they won't care very much whether that QR code leads to Google Play or to an apk. The process is really no different than running an .exe you downloaded on your computer.
So why didn't Pokemon Go pull out of Google Play? Your only example is from 6 year and keep the 30% which Google takes? You only have one example from 6 years ago and people only sideloaded there only because it wasn't available on Google Play.
The one example you provided proves the opposite of what you wanted lol