Even more likely - hiring comes to a screeching halt. That's what brings the rental market down. There are a lot of new apartments being added to the market and bam, oversupply of rental units if the hiring slows down or stops.

Just clarifying, are you speaking of SF, or the US more generally...?

It's likely to spread throughout the country.

That is highly overestimating the amount of tech jobs in the rest of the country. For SF, yes, I agree.

Sticky for people already employed, perhaps, but probably not for new hires, I'd guess.

Also, anecdotally, in 2008 some of those fired were expensive new hires. "The bottom 25%" might be defined as those fired but otherwise I don't think there is a definition of "bottom" those who get fired all fit. Say, if a project or a department is terminated, often everyone is let go, instead of trying to keep "the best" and replacing "worse" people elsewhere with them, etc.