Well-written; seems like an expanded and more detailed version of the Twitter essay that made the rounds a couple weeks ago.
One thing this piece doesn't contemplate is deflation. Competition will still exist in this world; if friction decreases and renders switching costs lower for a wider variety of industries, while AI efficiencies improve margins, prices in those markets will be competed down to a substantially lower marginal cost floor.
In other words, people may make less money, but goods in industries which benefit from AI should become cheaper in a growing set of competitive markets. The magnitude of the impact on prices should correlate with the magnitude of the employment impact; the better AI is at taking our jobs, the cheaper prices should get for an ever wider basket of goods.
How will AI affect the price of real goods and their inputs: lumber, food, electricity, textiles and the like? And will companies pass on the service-based savings to consumers?
The point is that if this article is correct about the assumption that AI is capable enough to reduce the friction of consumers rationally comparing options for a far wider basket of goods, then competition will reduce prices. No company wants to reduce prices if they don't have to -- their hand is forced by declining market share (or, with discounters, price reductions are a deliberate strategy to increase market share and absolute profit).
The bull case for AI and consumer welfare is 1) turning more markets into "perfect competition" like airline tickets, and 2) driving actual prices lower because the marginal cost of production is lower with less labor. Even if real inputs don't change, removing labor will reduce marginal cost (which implies that you'll see the largest price declines in labor-intensive industries).
but doesn't this implicitly assuming the reduction in labour cost and household income is like for like price reduction. When there's probably just as likely (& if not more) that the reduction in household income is lopsided so overall ability to purchase is reduced. You'll then need fewer people to buy more to make up for the loss of some buyers which is unlikely for many goods.
I do think the idea that AI is good for economic growth is for the fairies personally under the current model. I cant square the circle of a consumer based economic model will see higher growth by the apparently significant reduction in said consumers income.
It will still be decades before necessities (housing, food, etc.) deflate. How long will it take to develop humanoid AI robots that can manufacture/farm/build, and then how long until that gets widespread adoption and then lead to deflation? If this scenario plays out, people will be jobless and poor long before that happens.
Universities with large endowments still charge tuition. The available proceeds from appreciation of the trust may not be enough to cover their operating expenses.
Universities aren't exactly a great model of freedom from private interests. And it's not clear why many of them do still charge tuition—i just assumed it was some effort to emphasize classism in a world where they also want to look gracious for paying for poor people.
And believe me, for the colleges I examined this at, tuition was a rounding error compared to the return on the endowment. It is just for aesthetics of charging students in a uniquely american show of stupidity.
Branch | Ecommerce Product Manager / Hybrid PM + Dev | Remote Friendly EST (NYC / Toronto Preferred)
Branch makes and sells work products for remote workers and growing teams. We're looking for a Digital Product Manager or hybrid PM / dev to lead the development of our ecommerce site and systems. You’ll ship beautiful, functional and accessible commerce experiences addressing both our enterprise and DTC customer segments, as well as full-stack applications to support our operations and broader enterprise ambitions.
As the only product management hire at Branch, you’ll have the opportunity to lead a product practice at a well-funded and rapidly-growing startup pursuing a unique opportunity that anchors in online commerce and extends far beyond it.
What we're looking for: as a pure PM, 2-5 years of relevant product management experience (preferably at a high-growth ecommerce startup) OR experience founding an ecommerce business, reps managing a sprint planning process and owning a product roadmap, deep knowledge of Shopify Plus and the Shopify ecosystem, strong portfolio featuring experience shipping exceptional features that users love, and comfort shipping low or no code features. We would also be very excited to hire a developer with 2-4 years of front-end development experience, ideally within the Shopify Plus ecosystem, with an interest in pivoting to product and a willingness to plan and build at the same time.
Open to any remote candidates in EST (or willing to work those hours), with NYC and Toronto preferred. If interested, email hn [at] branchfurniture.com with a few sentences about your background and interest, along with your favorite and least favorite things about the Shopify platform.
Branch | Ecommerce Product Manager | Remote Friendly EST (NYC / Toronto Preferred)
Branch makes and sells work products for remote workers and growing teams. We're looking for a Digital Product Manager to lead the development of our ecommerce site and systems. You’ll ship beautiful, functional and accessible commerce experiences addressing both our enterprise and DTC customer segments, as well as full-stack applications to support our operations and broader enterprise ambitions.
As the only product management hire at Branch, you’ll have the opportunity to lead a product practice at a well-funded and rapidly-growing startup pursuing a unique opportunity that anchors in online commerce and extends far beyond it.
What we're looking for: 2-5 years of relevant product management experience (preferably at a high-growth ecommerce startup) OR experience founding an ecommerce business, reps managing a sprint planning process and owning a product roadmap, deep knowledge of Shopify Plus and the Shopify ecosystem, strong portfolio featuring experience shipping exceptional features that users love. Some ability to code and love for furniture / design / productivity are a huge bonus.
Open to any remote candidates in EST (or willing to work those hours), with NYC and Toronto preferred. If interested, email hn [at] branchfurniture.com with a few sentences about your background and interest.
Branch | https://branchfurniture.com | Contract iOS Dev, Content Manager | Remote Friendly EST (NYC / Toronto Preferred)
Branch makes and sells work products for remote workers and growing teams. We're currently hiring for two very exciting roles. First, we're looking for a Contract iOS Developer with 5-10+ years of experience building native iOS apps from the ground up to build a groundbreaking new experience for the workday (can share more when we meet). We're also looking for a Content & Campaigns Manager with 1-4+ years of experience to own the production of exceptional written content and seamless coordination of all creative content throug the full user journey, including evergreen, seasonal and promotional marketing campaigns, UX and product copy, and dedicated content marketing across channels.
Open to any remote candidates in EST (or willing to work those hours), with NYC and Toronto slightly preferred. If interested, email hn [at] branchfurniture.com with a few sentences about you and your interest.
Branch | Ecommerce Product Manager | Remote Friendly EST (NYC / Toronto Preferred)
Branch makes and sells work products for remote workers and growing teams. We're looking for a Digital Product Manager to lead the development of our ecommerce site and systems. You’ll ship beautiful, functional and accessible commerce experiences addressing both our enterprise and DTC customer segments, as well as full-stack applications (mostly built on Shopify) to support our operations.
As the only product management hire at Branch, you’ll have the opportunity to lead a product practice at a well-funded and rapidly-growing startup pursuing a unique opportunity that anchors in online commerce and extends far beyond it.
What we're looking for: 2-5 years of relevant product management experience (preferably at a high-growth ecommerce startup) OR experience founding an ecommerce business, reps managing a sprint planning process and owning a product roadmap, knowledge of Shopify Plus and the Shopify ecosystem, strong portfolio featuring experience shipping exceptional features that users love. Some ability to code, love for furniture and design big bonus.
Open to any remote candidates in EST (or willing to work those hours), with NYC and Toronto slightly preferred. If interested, email hn [at] branchfurniture.com with a few sentences about you and your interest.
I’m one of the founders of Branch Furniture (venture backed DTC office furniture startup based in nyc). We founded the business to help growing companies (think WeWork graduates) furnish their office space with ergonomic office furniture without an Aeron level budget. Our enterprise business basically disappeared during the pandemic, so we’ve been selling to consumers for the past year and have learned a TON about what makes a great home office.
You definitely should check out our seating line if you’d like an option that offers a fair amount of adjustability and (though this is subjective) a home office friendly aesthetic at a sub $300 price point. If you’ve got a higher budget ($400-500) and willing to work the liquidator / Craigslist home office grind I’d honestly endorse the used Aeron approach as well — they’re rock solid chairs, extremely adjustable and buying used is objectively better for the environment (we have a trade in program for our enterprise clients and working on one for consumers).
But beyond the chair you pick, three big lessons to keep in mind:
1) For most folks in tech, it’s not the chair that’s the problem. Adjusting it to your body and needs is critical to maximizing its ergonomic benefit for your body. Something like 80% of office workers only adjust the height and tilt of their chair. Would strongly recommend giving the user manual for the chair you buy a read (download it online if used). We offer an ergonomic consultation to every buyer and are working on a few cool tools to guide folks who use our furniture in making the most of it.
2) The rest of your setup is equally as impactful to your comfort. Get a monitor arm or put your monitor on a stack of books. If you’re short or petite, get a footstool so you upper and lower legs are at a 90 degree angle to each other and your backs of your knees don’t press against the chair seat. A standing desk makes a difference, if not for standing than to adjust the height of your work surface to your own height.
3) Take breaks. Seriously. There are no chairs I know of that will support you adequately over 10 or even 8 hours of work, summed over weeks and years.
I’m so glad to see this question being discussed! Figuring out the most supportive setup for your needs is like flossing; you don’t always see the benefit immediately, but you’ll be glad to have done the research after a decade of desk work (and perhaps before). Feel free to reach out — email in bio — if you have any questions about ergonomics. We also released a cool guide to basic ergonomics that might be worth a read. [0]
The -mab suffix means it's a "monoclonal antibody," or a lab-made protein that specifically targets a certain antigen (for example, an antigen found on a cancer cells).
One thing this piece doesn't contemplate is deflation. Competition will still exist in this world; if friction decreases and renders switching costs lower for a wider variety of industries, while AI efficiencies improve margins, prices in those markets will be competed down to a substantially lower marginal cost floor.
In other words, people may make less money, but goods in industries which benefit from AI should become cheaper in a growing set of competitive markets. The magnitude of the impact on prices should correlate with the magnitude of the employment impact; the better AI is at taking our jobs, the cheaper prices should get for an ever wider basket of goods.